Analysts anticipate Kazakhstan's GDP growth in January-April to range from 3.6 to 4.2% The economy of Kazakhstan is expected to grow by 3.6-4.2% in January-April 2024, according to analysts surveyed by the Interfax-Kazakhstan agency.According to a preliminary assessment by the Bureau of National Statistics, Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms (ASPR), economic growth in Kazakhstan in the first quarter of this year slowed to 3.9%.“The recent floods in some regions of the country (…) contributed to the slump of business activity in some industries in the north of the country and will have a significant negative impact on economic development. In particular, there will be significant pressure on the budget, (…) as funds will be allocated for the restoration of the affected regions. The sectors most affected by the floods, according to our estimates, are agriculture, transport and warehousing, as well as trade,” Jusan Analytics senior analyst Klara Seidakhmetova said.According to Freedom Finance Global forecasts, Kazakhstan's GDP will grow by 4% in January-April."GDP growth in Q1 fell to 3.9% y/y, largely due to a slowdown in the trade and transport sectors. However, we believe that GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 4% in January-April to a greater extent due to the growing construction sector and higher average oil prices in April,” the company analyst Daniyar Orazbayev commented.According to the forecasts of Olga Belenkaya, the head of the macroeconomic analysis department at the Financial Group Finam, the flood situation may negatively affect economic activity in April. Thus, according to her forecasts, GDP growth based on the results of four months could reach 3.8-4%."In 2023, the economy of Kazakhstan grew by 5.1%. International financial organizations expect a temporary slowdown in the growth of the Kazakhstan economy this year due to the delay in the launch of Tengiz field expansion. Economic growth is expected to accelerate next year due to implementation of Tengiz field expansion project," Belenkaya said.General Director of DAMU Capital Management Murat Kastayev predicts GDP growth for April in the range of 4-4.1%.“A certain slowdown was caused by Kazakhstan’s oil production exceeding the OPEC+ limit in Q1 and the slump in production in April, as well as the flood situation, which undermines economic activity and consumption in a number of regions. Economic growth is supported by high oil prices and growing state budget expenses," Kastayev said.As noted by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), the economy of Kazakhstan is growing at a steady pace, in accordance with the forecasts of the National Bank, and by the end of April, the country's GDP will grow by 3.8-4.2%.“Economic growth in Kazakhstan in April will continue to be supported by high oil prices, stable consumer demand, as well as the government’s structural measures to slow inflation. At the same time, the potential for GDP growth may be limited by the negative effect of floods in certain regions of Kazakhstan. Against this background, GDP growth for four months of 2024 could be 3.8-4.2%,” the AFK believes.The economic growth of Kazakhstan in 2023 was 5.1%. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: Interfax